EgyptAir 804 Incident Question Thread

"For Sweden" (rallybeetle) 05/18/2016 at 23:43 • Filed to: EgyptAir 804, MS804, EgyptAir, Aviation Safety, Flight Safety, Planelopnik

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You don’t know what happened to EgyptAir Flight 804, and neither do I. But if you have any other questions about the developing incident, I will try to answer them as best as I can.

Note: if this is shared from Oppositelock, I will delete the post. Let’s keep this local.

scoob > For Sweden 05/18/2016 at 23:48

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What’s a hypotenuse?

Dusty Ventures > For Sweden 05/18/2016 at 23:49

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For those who are newer to Oppo, or just don’t know, might I suggest making mention of your qualifications and knowledge base that make you able to answer questions about this kind of thing?

For Sweden > scoob 05/18/2016 at 23:49

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A poorly made joke made in tragic times

scoob > For Sweden 05/18/2016 at 23:50

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You’re right, dismiss if you want. It’s past my bedtime.

For Sweden > Dusty Ventures 05/18/2016 at 23:50

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Good point Resident Oppositelock Moderator:

Without getting too specific, I am an aerospace engineer working in the field of Aviation Safety.

In my free time, I guffaw at full-time cable news aviation experts.

For Sweden > scoob 05/18/2016 at 23:52

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I would but I chuckled :(

smobgirl > For Sweden 05/18/2016 at 23:54

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Not in your field of expertise, but will security theater be beefed up tomorrow at random American airports? 4:45 am is already earlier than I want to be there.

smobgirl > smobgirl 05/18/2016 at 23:56

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That probably came across as more selfish than I wanted. I am absolutely concerned with the missing aircraft, I just don't think TSA really has security as their primary goal.

For Sweden > smobgirl 05/18/2016 at 23:57

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I don’t think so. There is no evidence of malicious actions, either by terrorists or the crew.

If you are flying out of the USA and traveling though TSA screening, I really don’t think so. The TSA is already under heavy accusations of intentionally creating artificial wait times as a negotiating tactic. Anything seen as using a tragedy to create more “fake” delays would ruin any credibility the TSA has left.

ttyymmnn > For Sweden 05/19/2016 at 00:00

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Have you seen a flight track? How long was it in the air before it disappeared?

Dusty Ventures > For Sweden 05/19/2016 at 00:00

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When a plane goes missing like this, what is the first course of action taken by authorities? How large of an area is the initial search radius?

Turbineguy: Nom de Zoom > For Sweden 05/19/2016 at 00:00

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In my free time, I guffaw at full-time cable news aviation experts.

As all of us in the industry do, believe me..

For Sweden > ttyymmnn 05/19/2016 at 00:01

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I’ve only seen what’s on the ADS-B websites, but news channels are saying the aircraft was about 10 nautical miles inside Egyptian airspace and at 37,000 feet when it disappeared.

The aircraft would be nearing the start of the descent, after overflying much of Europe.

ttyymmnn > For Sweden 05/19/2016 at 00:02

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a negotiating tactic.

I have not been paying very close attention this, beyond the occasional headline about 3-hour waits at ORD. I was wondering why this is suddenly an issue. Is their contract up?

RallyWrench > For Sweden 05/19/2016 at 00:02

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Wow. This isn’t really hit US outlets yet, I had to google it and the first result is basically a simple timeline from the Guardian.

Any idea if there are any known SAM threats in range of the point of lost contact over Egypt?

For Sweden > Turbineguy: Nom de Zoom 05/19/2016 at 00:03

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One note to follow this: Any expert worth listening to, especially in American media markets, won’t be on TV until mid-morning at the earliest.

ttyymmnn > For Sweden 05/19/2016 at 00:03

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So, still over water?

HammerheadFistpunch > For Sweden 05/19/2016 at 00:05

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when they say “missing from radar” do they actually have a radar track of a craft that far out? or is it just that the transponder when dark?

For Sweden > ttyymmnn 05/19/2016 at 00:06

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This is not an accusation that the TSA is acting outside of the best interests of the traveling public.

For several months TSA employees have unsuccesfully petitioned for more hires and more funding for overtime pay. Then shortly after TSA warned of longer wait times at major airports, wait times skyrocket at those airports, while the Pre- line remains relatively empty. Some are saying that this is a purposeful action by TSA employees to make the public demand more funding.

Xyl0c41n3 > For Sweden 05/19/2016 at 00:07

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Why delete the post of it’s cross-posted? I can’t imagine a post like this turning into one of the cross-sub-blog flame wars of old. It's an interesting post about an interesting (and scary and sad and bewildering) situation.

For Sweden > ttyymmnn 05/19/2016 at 00:07

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Yes, over the water.

For Sweden > HammerheadFistpunch 05/19/2016 at 00:10

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I think they were close enough to be seen by land-based radar.

For Sweden > Xyl0c41n3 05/19/2016 at 00:11

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It’s mostly because I don’t want a bunch of Deadspin commentors asking me questions.

ttyymmnn > For Sweden 05/19/2016 at 00:11

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What a shit show. Seriously, why is this so hard? Is it simply a matter of scale? Or are we reaping the rewards of getting the federal government involved in the process?

/I don’t mean to jack the thread.

For Sweden > RallyWrench 05/19/2016 at 00:11

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I don’t think so, but the Egyptian Air Force would be all over a SAM site that could down an aircraft flying at 37,000 feet.

For Sweden > ttyymmnn 05/19/2016 at 00:12

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Given by the number of airports investigating replacing the TSA with their own security, probably the later.

ttyymmnn > For Sweden 05/19/2016 at 00:14

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What is EgyptAir’s maintenance/incident record like? About average?

For Sweden > ttyymmnn 05/19/2016 at 00:15

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I do not have an educated guess on that. However, EgyptAir is cleared to fly to Europe and North America, so it can’t be terrible.

wafflesnfalafel > HammerheadFistpunch 05/19/2016 at 00:17

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CNN just posted they were on radar and disappeared off of it right after entering Egyptian airspace. How far would “Egyptian airspace” go out into the Mediterranean? They were probably still over water, eh?

ttyymmnn > For Sweden 05/19/2016 at 00:19

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I find it interesting that, for a political party who so champions private industry as being more efficient than government, the shift to the TSA took place in the Bush administration. But I suppose it was politically expedient to be seen as doing something at a difficult time.

Xyl0c41n3 > For Sweden 05/19/2016 at 00:20

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Oh. Those guys? Yeah, fuck those guys.

(Kidding).

After reading through some of your responses, though, it makes a lot more sense now. Initially, I thought you were just making this post to serve as a gathering place to talk about the event versus having a gazillion different Oppo posts about it. But now I understand why *you* made this post. Thank you for taking the time to lend your knowledge.

RallyWrench > wafflesnfalafel 05/19/2016 at 00:20

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I just read elsewhere that Egyptian air traffic control said it more faded from radar than disappeared suddenly.

For Sweden > HammerheadFistpunch 05/19/2016 at 00:23

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I have a better answer for you:

An antenna feeding the website FlightAware picked up an ADS-B message from the aircraft at 20:29:21 EDT . ADS-B is a digital transmission at 1090 mHz that includes the aircraft’s registration, GPS location, ground speed, flight track (not magnetic heading), and vertical speed. It is extremely unlikely this transmission would or could be faked. However, faking this signal was one conspiracy theory surrounding MH370.

Flyboy is FAA certified insane > For Sweden 05/19/2016 at 00:23

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Was it a bomb like Itavia flight 870 you think? This seems just like that accident. Initially thought to be shot down, bit was actually Explosives on the inside.

Kind of chilling that when I googled the flight # it was offering me tickets.

ttyymmnn > RallyWrench 05/19/2016 at 00:25

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If you have a globe lying around (I only do because I have kids in school), you will see that the route from Paris to Cairo would have been pretty much down the coast of Italy, maybe crossing a bit of Libya (though probably steering around it). I really don’t want to guess bomb at this stage, but it has to be in the “possible” column, considering the departure and arrival points. At 37,000 ft, the plane should have been out of range of any shoulder-fired missiles. That said, it is still too early to rule out mechanical problems.

For Sweden > Flyboy is FAA certified insane 05/19/2016 at 00:25

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Could be a bomb, but if I was a terrorist with the ability to detonate a bomb remotely long after an aircraft reached cruise altitude, I’d down the airplane over a more populated area.

deprecated account > ttyymmnn 05/19/2016 at 00:26

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FWIW and speaking as a fairly conservative guy, Bush was not the most conservative guy by any means, domestically speaking, and yeah, 9/11 definitely necessitated (at least in most people's eyes) the need for the TSA.

Blondude > ttyymmnn 05/19/2016 at 00:27

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Someone over on Reddit has been doing a good job of keeping track of all of the info that is coming out.

Here’s the FlightAware tracklog

ttyymmnn > For Sweden 05/19/2016 at 00:29

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However, faking this signal was one conspiracy theory surrounding MH370.

And more pieces of MH370 are washing up lately, so there’s that. Looking at your link, the updates are coming in at 30-second intervals until the last four. Coincidence?

ttyymmnn > Blondude 05/19/2016 at 00:30

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Thanks for the links.

Flyboy is FAA certified insane > For Sweden 05/19/2016 at 00:30

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Good point, but the Itavia flight was in the middle of nowhere too. This Egypt flight wouldn’t even make sense if they were trying to frame somebody. Why would Egypt shoot down its own plane?

HammerheadFistpunch > For Sweden 05/19/2016 at 00:30

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According to that log it was a case of there...and then not. No changes in course, altitude, speed...just gone. creepy, Assuming that this data and not a radar track in addition is all we have to go on...what are the odds that the transponder was turned off or damaged?

ttyymmnn > deprecated account 05/19/2016 at 00:31

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The last thing I want is to turn this into a political thread, and I appreciate the comment.

deprecated account > ttyymmnn 05/19/2016 at 00:32

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I totally get it, and I don't mean to hijack the thread or anything ;)

ttyymmnn > HammerheadFistpunch 05/19/2016 at 00:33

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Even if the transponder had been turned off, weren’t they close enough to show up on “regular” radar?

For Sweden > ttyymmnn 05/19/2016 at 00:37

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At ~200 miles off the coast and at cruise altitude, I think ATC would see the aircraft on traditional radar.

ttyymmnn > deprecated account 05/19/2016 at 00:37

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Well, I already jacked it when I started asking about TSA. Though I found ForSweden’s comments to be very enlightening. He’s not being his typical laconic self tonight.

For Sweden > Flyboy is FAA certified insane 05/19/2016 at 00:38

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They wouldn’t. Just like MH17, the wreckage would show obvious signs of damage from a missile.

RallyWrench > ttyymmnn 05/19/2016 at 00:40

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Yeah, I saw a flight map elsewhere, and the proximity to Libya prompted my question. I have no idea what the range of either shoulder-fired or permanent SAM installations is, but I’d guess it’s not outside the realm of possibility.

I’m pretty good on geography, but now I miss my old globe. Time to get one for the kids.

Edit: definitely possible it's a mechanical, but the apparent lack of a distress call and proximity to trouble spots immediately came to mind.

For Sweden > ttyymmnn 05/19/2016 at 00:40

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Probably a coincidence, but I don’t know enough about the ADS-B transmitters to say for sure.

I can say that most FlightAware antennas are owned by amateurs that share data with the service. I’ve used my own amateur ADS-B antenna, and in busy airspace not all signals are picked up. That may be the case here.

ttyymmnn > For Sweden 05/19/2016 at 00:43

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So, FlightAware et al is crowdsourced? I didn’t know that.

ttyymmnn > RallyWrench 05/19/2016 at 00:47

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The BUK missile that took down the Malaysian flight over Ukraine has a range of over 80,000 feet (no doubt a direct response to the SR-71). The average MANPADS (shoulder-fired missiles) have an effective range of about 20,000 feet. The US Stinger missile reaches out to about 26,000. This flight was at 37,000 ft when it disappeared.

Gripevo1 > For Sweden 05/19/2016 at 01:02

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Yea. I cant stand watching the “experts” after a plane crash. Ive been reading this great blog by an AA captain for a couple years(he frequently comments of the idiocy of cable news airline/plane related news headlines)-

https://jethead.wordpress.com/2016/05/13/the…

RallyWrench > HammerheadFistpunch 05/19/2016 at 01:05

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http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/201…

This statement, as reported by the Guardian, says it “faded” from contact.

deprecated account > ttyymmnn 05/19/2016 at 01:31

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Yes, definitely a departure from the usual. Honestly when I first saw the article I didn’t think to see who it was written by because I just figured it was you lol

DipodomysDeserti > For Sweden 05/19/2016 at 02:10

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Not in the Sinai they wouldn’t. They don't have any control over that area.

M54B30 > For Sweden 05/19/2016 at 03:56

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Saw this as the gym a few hours ago. Probably just hanging out with MH370 somewhere.

Also, surprising to me that Paris-Cairo route only would have 56 pax. I would’ve assumed more between two big cities like that

Stapleface > For Sweden 05/19/2016 at 06:36

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Maybe this is a rather simple question, but why isn't there an undefeatable GPS transponder on all commercial flights? Something encased in a ballistic material that can survive a bomb or impact (similar to the black box)

smobgirl > ttyymmnn 05/19/2016 at 07:06

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I kind of started it, also sorry. But it's been interesting flying so regularly to watch how various issues affect airport security.

KusabiSensei - Captain of the Toronto Maple Leafs > For Sweden 05/19/2016 at 07:33

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I haven’t read any reports since I woke up about 20 minutes ago.

Do we know the aircraft type and conditions? If there was abnormal weather, does this point to a scenario like AF447? (i.e. pitot icing event not correctly dealt with)

Has EgyptAir mentioned if there was anything abnormal in the ACARS transmissions?

f86sabre > Dusty Ventures 05/19/2016 at 07:40

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Typically the search starts at the last known location and expands from there. There are a number of patterns that can be used. Check out this link for examples. The size of the area would expand until you find something.

f86sabre > KusabiSensei - Captain of the Toronto Maple Leafs 05/19/2016 at 07:46

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A320

48000 hours flight time

Pilot had 6000 hrs

Clear and calm

ttyymmnn > For Sweden 05/19/2016 at 08:00

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It’s beginning to sound like there may have been a struggle in the cockpit.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-mid…

For Sweden > ttyymmnn 05/19/2016 at 08:11

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[breathes in through teeth heavily]

For Sweden > Stapleface 05/19/2016 at 08:13

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Mostly because weight and we allow pilots to turn off any electrical device in case of fire

KusabiSensei - Captain of the Toronto Maple Leafs > f86sabre 05/19/2016 at 08:30

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Then it would be flat incredible to see the pitot tubes ice up.

Any mentions of ACARS transmissions? That may point the investigators in the right direction until they recover the flight data recorder.

Biggus Dickus (RevsBro) > ttyymmnn 05/19/2016 at 09:50

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EgyptAir Flight 990? I hope this isn’t some security issues at CDG, i’m flying through there next month . . .

ttyymmnn > Biggus Dickus (RevsBro) 05/19/2016 at 09:52

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Where are you flying to? If this is terrorism, I think that the fact that the flight was going to CAI has a lot to do with why it was chosen as a target.

Biggus Dickus (RevsBro) > ttyymmnn 05/19/2016 at 09:55

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JFK - CDG then CDG - ATL, so nowhere “adventurous”

Edit: I’m not actually concerned just more mildly curious if it will make security worse.

ttyymmnn > Biggus Dickus (RevsBro) 05/19/2016 at 10:48

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IF it were a bomb, I think it would be more likely that it was put on the plane by a member of then ground crew. But there are other, more mundane (except to the passengers) explanations for why the plane flew erratically. If a piece fell off, that would do it. I think you are much more likely to have security problems in the US with long wait times. As for the security of your flight, I think you will be fine.

Biggus Dickus (RevsBro) > ttyymmnn 05/19/2016 at 10:53

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Security shouldn’t be a problem in the US because of how my flights are scheduled plus TSA Pre.

ttyymmnn > For Sweden 05/19/2016 at 10:53

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If the airports go private, as some have, who pays for it? The airport? The airlines?

ttyymmnn > Biggus Dickus (RevsBro) 05/19/2016 at 10:54

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If you’re TSA Pre you should be just fine.

For Sweden > ttyymmnn 05/19/2016 at 11:00

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I think both, but I’m not sure.

KusabiSensei - Captain of the Toronto Maple Leafs > ttyymmnn 05/19/2016 at 12:18

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Politicians’ Logic: Something must be done. This is something. Therefore we must do it.

ttyymmnn > KusabiSensei - Captain of the Toronto Maple Leafs 05/19/2016 at 12:25

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Jake Huitt - Two Alfas And A Nissan, Not A Single Running Car > Turbineguy: Nom de Zoom 05/19/2016 at 20:28

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And I would expand to include anyone in aviation. Always funny seeing the news call ever GA airplane that goes down a jet or a cessna.